HM Revenue & Customs has finally corrected a long-standing error in its online State Pension forecast system — an issue that may have affected hundreds of thousands of people planning their retirement.
For nearly nine years, some users checking their pension entitlement through the official government website were shown forecasts suggesting they were on track to receive the full State Pension when, in reality, their entitlement could be lower.
If you have ever relied on an online pension forecast, now is the time to check it again.
What went wrong
The problem centres on workers who were previously “contracted out” of the additional State Pension before the new State Pension system was introduced in April 2016.
Under the old rules, many employees — particularly those in public sector or large workplace pension schemes — paid reduced National Insurance contributions because part of their retirement income was provided through occupational pensions.
However, HMRC’s forecasting tool did not always correctly account for these contracted-out years. The result was overly optimistic pension projections for some users.
While forecasts were always intended as guidance rather than guarantees, many people understandably treated figures shown on an official government platform as reliable planning information.
Why this matters more than it appears
Retirement planning is built on long-term assumptions. A small misunderstanding today can translate into a significant income gap decades later.
People may have decided:
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not to make voluntary National Insurance contributions
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to retire earlier than planned
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or to reduce private pension savings
—all based on figures they believed were accurate.
The real issue here is not simply a technical error, but trust. When citizens rely on digital government tools to make life-changing financial decisions, accuracy becomes essential.
Who may be affected
You may want to review your pension forecast if you:
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Worked before April 2016 in a workplace or public-sector pension scheme
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Were contracted out of the additional State Pension
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Checked your State Pension forecast between 2016 and early 2026
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Were told you were on track for the full new State Pension
This commonly includes teachers, NHS workers, civil servants, police officers and employees of large corporate pension schemes.
What HMRC says
HMRC has apologised and confirmed the forecasting system has now been updated to better reflect National Insurance contribution histories.
You can review your position using the official government services:
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Check your State Pension forecast: https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension
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Check your National Insurance record: https://www.gov.uk/check-national-insurance-record
What you should do now
Even if retirement feels distant, this is a good moment to sense-check your future income assumptions.
Practical steps include:
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Reviewing your updated forecast
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Checking for missing contribution years
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Considering voluntary National Insurance payments where appropriate
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Reassessing overall retirement planning
Most people require 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions to receive the full new State Pension, although individual outcomes vary.
My Own Insight
This episode highlights a broader reality: digital convenience does not eliminate financial responsibility.
Government tools are increasingly sophisticated, but they are still models — not guarantees. Anyone planning retirement should treat official forecasts as one data point rather than the final answer.
The good news is that many people still have time to adjust their plans. The bad news is that confidence in official projections may take longer to repair than the software itself.
